Mùa thu nhập của Mỹ tháng 4 đang rơi vào một thị trường mong muốn nhiều hơn là một câu chuyện hay. JPMorgan đã đặt ra một tiêu chuẩn cao với kết quả mạnh mẽ, và sự chú ý hiện đang chuyển sang phòng động cơ của S&P 500: cơ sở hạ tầng AI, nơi ba công ty là trung tâm của câu chuyện đó.

Tại sao cửa sổ thu nhập này lại quan trọng đối với AI

Microsoft, Alphabet và NVIDIA không chỉ là những người tham gia vào chu trình AI, họ đang xây dựng kiến trúc vật lý và phần mềm mà các công ty khác phụ thuộc vào: chip, khu vực đám mây, mô hình và công cụ. Nếu chi tiêu này mang lại lợi nhuận, các dấu hiệu đầu tiên có thể bắt đầu hiển thị trong kết quả hàng quý của họ trong vài tuần tới.

Mỗi công ty đại diện cho một bài kiểm tra khác nhau.

1. Microsoft: Việc áp dụng AI cho doanh nghiệp có chuyển thành mở rộng doanh thu và lợi nhuận hay không
2. Bảng chữ cái: Cho dù sở hữu toàn bộ ngăn xếp, từ chip đến đám mây đến phân phối, là một lợi thế lâu dài hay đơn giản là một vị trí đắt tiền để bảo vệ
3. NVIDIA: Cho dù chu kỳ phần cứng vẫn giữ, tăng tốc hoặc bắt đầu cân bằng

Vào năm 2026, câu hỏi không còn là liệu đầu tư AI có xảy ra hay không, các cam kết vốn là đáng kể và đã được công bố công khai. Câu hỏi đặt ra là liệu chi tiêu đó có tạo ra lợi nhuận đủ nhanh để biện minh cho quy mô của những cược đó hay không.

April’s US earnings season is arriving in a market that is asking harder questions. It is no longer enough for companies to tell a good story. Traders want to see whether the physical side of the next cycle is turning into real revenue, steadier margins and clearer guidance.

That is why Tesla, NextEra Energy and Exxon Mobil matter this month. Each sits close to a theme the market is trying to price right now: autonomy, electricity demand and oil supply risk. They are very different businesses, but together they offer a useful read on where attention may be shifting when the market wants something more tangible.

In 2026, those signals are colliding with a high-friction backdrop:

1. AI power demand is pushing utilities, storage and grid capacity into focus
2. Tesla needs to show that autonomy and energy can support the next chapter beyond EV margins
3. Oil supply risk has pushed energy security back into the conversation

Why this part of the market matters

The broader theme here is simple. AI still matters. Growth still matters. But this earnings season may also test the companies supplying the power, infrastructure and fuel behind that story.

For beginner to intermediate traders, this matters because these stocks can move for very different reasons. Tesla can trade on margins and product narrative. NextEra can trade on power demand and capital spending plans. Exxon can move with crude, refining margins and buyback confidence. Looking at them together gives traders a clearer way to think about how the market is pricing the real economy side of the 2026 story.

The 8 April ceasefire announcement and parallel discussions around a 45-day truce have not resolved the Strait of Hormuz disruption. They have, for now, capped the worst-case scenario, but tanker traffic remains at a fraction of normal levels and Iran's demand for transit fees signals a structural shift, not a temporary one.

What began as a regional conflict has become a global energy shock, and the question for markets is no longer whether Hormuz was disrupted, but how permanently the disruption changes the pricing floor for oil.

Key takeaways

• Around 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of oil and petroleum products normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz between Iran and Oman, equal to about one-fifth of global oil consumption and roughly 30% of global seaborne oil trade.
• This is a flow shock, not an inventory problem. Oil markets depend on continuous throughput, not static storage.
• If the disruption persists beyond a few weeks, Brent could shift from a short-term spike to a broader price shock, with stagflation risk.
• Tanker traffic through the strait fell from around 135 ships per day to fewer than 15 at the peak of disruption, a reduction of approximately 85%, with more than 150 vessels anchored, diverted, or delayed.
• A two-week ceasefire was announced on 8 April, with 45-day truce negotiations under way. Iran has separately signalled a demand for transit fees on vessels using the strait, which, if formalised, would represent a permanent geopolitical floor on energy costs.
• Markets have begun rotating away from growth and technology exposure toward energy and defence names, reflecting a view that elevated oil is becoming a structural cost rather than a temporary risk premium.

The world’s most critical oil chokepoint

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, equal to about 20% of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade. With global oil demand near 104 million bpd and spare capacity limited, the market was already tightly balanced before the latest escalation.

The strait is also a critical corridor for liquefied natural gas. Around 290 million cubic metres of LNG transited the route each day on average in 2024, representing roughly 20% of global LNG trade, with Asian markets the main destination.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described Hormuz as the world’s most important oil transit chokepoint, noting that even partial interruptions may trigger outsized price moves. Brent crude has moved above US$100 a barrel, reflecting both physical tightness and a rising geopolitical risk premium.

Tankers idle as flows slow

Shipping and insurance data now point to strain in real time. More than 85 large crude carriers are reported to be stranded in the Persian Gulf, while more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted or delayed as operators reassess safety and insurance cover. That would leave an estimated 120 million to 150 million barrels of crude sitting idle at sea.

Those volumes represent only six to seven days of normal Hormuz throughput, or a little more than one day of global oil consumption.

Updated shipping and insurance data now confirm more than 150 vessels have been anchored, diverted, or delayed, up from the 85 initially reported. The 1.3 days of global consumption coverage from idle crude remains the binding constraint: this is a flow shock, not a storage problem, and the ceasefire has not yet translated into meaningfully restored throughput.

A market built on flow, not storage

Oil markets function on continuous movement. Refineries, petrochemical plants and global supply chains are calibrated to steady deliveries along predictable sea lanes. When flows through a chokepoint that carries roughly one-fifth of global oil consumption and around 30% of global seaborne oil trade are interrupted, the system can move from equilibrium to deficit within days.

Spare production capacity, largely concentrated within OPEC, is estimated at only 3 million to 5 million bpd. That falls well short of the volumes at risk if Hormuz flows are severely disrupted.

Oil market analysis

How long do idle tankers last?

135M idle barrels — days of cover against each demand benchmark

vs. Strait of Hormuz daily flow  (20M bbl/day)

6.75 days of Hormuz throughput covered

6.75 days

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 days

vs. Global oil consumption  (104M bbl/day)

1.3 days of world demand covered

1.3 days

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 days

vs. US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release  (1M bbl/day)

135 days of full SPR release pace covered

135 days — but SPR exists to replace this role

0

5

10

15

20

25

30 days

---

135M

idle barrels on tankers (midpoint of 120–150M range)

~33%

of daily Hormuz flow that is idle storage, not transit

<31 hrs

is all idle storage against global daily consumption

Sources: IEA, EIA, industry estimates. Idle crude midpoint of 120–150M bbl range used.

GO Markets

Inflation risks and macro spillovers

The inflationary impact of an oil shock typically arrives in waves. Higher fuel and energy prices may lift headline inflation quickly as petrol, diesel and power costs move higher.

Over time, higher energy costs may pass through freight, food, manufacturing and services. If the disruption persists, the combination of elevated inflation and slower growth could raise the risk of a stagflationary environment and leave central banks facing a difficult trade-off.

No easy offset, a system with little slack

What makes the current episode particularly acute is the lack of slack in the global system.

Global supply and demand near 103 million to 104 million bpd leave little spare cushion when a chokepoint handling nearly 20 million bpd, or about one-fifth of global oil consumption, is compromised. Estimated spare capacity of 3 million to 5 million bpd, mostly within OPEC, would cover only a fraction of the volumes at risk.

Alternative routes, including pipelines that bypass Hormuz and rerouted shipping, can only partly offset lost flows, and usually at higher cost and with longer lead times.

Bottom line

Until transit through the Strait of Hormuz is restored and seen as credibly secure, global oil flows are likely to remain impaired and risk premia elevated. For investors, policymakers and corporate decision-makers, the core question is whether oil can move where it needs to go, every day, without interruption.